Signal Calendar 22-29/2008

15-19 Calendar Signal

Buy GBP/USD

Long GBP/USD 12.15.08 - OPEN TRADE


Buy GBP/USD at market (now 1.5298)
Stop at 1.5238
Sell half of the position at 1.5328, move stop on rest to breakeven
Sell rest of position at 1.5470

The US dollar is selling off into the Federal Reserve interest rate decision tomorrow and we expect that to continue with US consumer prices and housing market numbers due for release. The data is expected to be dollar negative and we should be out of the trade well before the FOMC meeting.

**We may not be able to monitor the position tonight and send out timely adjustments to stops. Therefore if T1 is hit, move your stop to breakeven and then use a trailing stop on 30 pips.

Support and Resistance Technical

EUR/USD


Resistance 5 : 1.3260

Resistance 4 : 1.3160

Resistance 3 : 1.3117

Resistance 2 : 1.3070/81

Resistance 1 : 1.3002

Support 1 : 1.2890

Support 2 : 1.2840/50

Support 3 : 1.2798

Support 4 : 1.2735/40

Support 5 : 1.2716


USD/JPY


Resistance 5 : 94.26

Resistance 4 : 93.91

Resistance 3 : 93.52

Resistance 2 : 93.10

Resistance 1 : 92.86

Support 1 : 91.93

Support 2 : 91.58

Support 3 : 90.87

Support 4 : 90.25

Support 5 : 89.15

Leading Report

Leading


The Leading Indicators report is, for the most part, a compendium of previously announced economic indicators: new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices. Therefore, the report is extremely predictable and of very little interest to the market. Though this series does have some predictive qualities, it is a common criticism that it has predicted "nine of the last six" recessions.

The Commerce Department previously published the leading indicators series. The collection and publishing of these data is now done by the non-profit Conference Board, which also produces the Consumer Confidence index.


The index of leading indicators includes the ten economic statistics listed below.

1.The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury notes and the federal funds rate.
2. The inflation-adjusted, M2 measure of the money supply.
3. The average manufacturing workweek.
4. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
5. The S&P 500 measure of stock prices.
6. The vendor performance component of the NAPM index.
7. The average level of weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance.
8. Building permits.
9. The University of Michigan index of consumer expectations.
10.Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods.

The Conference Board, the organization that produces the leading index, standardizes these variables according to their individual weights in order to construct a composite leading index. Note that we have listed the components in order of importance. The difference between 10-year Treasuries and the fed funds rate carries the most weight; historically, this approximation of the slope of the yield curve has proven relatively more successful than other components at predicting future economic activity. Along those same lines, orders for nondefense capital goods carry the smallest weight because they have typically proven relatively poorer at pointing to changes in the direction of economic growth at large.

Calendar Singal

Calendar Signal

2008,12,04

2008,12,04 Signal Today

EUR/USD Buy at 1.2455 Exit at 1.2490 Sell at 1.2680 Exit at 1.2635 Open Short/Sell
GBP/USD Buy at 1.4375 Exit at 1.4430 Sell at 1.4725 Exit at 1.4680 Open Short/Sell
USD/JPY Buy at 91.85 Exit at 92.30 Sell at 93.45 Exit at 93.00 Open Long/Buy
USD/CHF Buy at 1.2075 Exit at 1.2115 Sell at 1.2265 Exit at 1.2220 Open Long/Buy
USD/CAD Buy at 1.2355 Exit at 1.2395 Sell at 1.2685 Exit at 1.2630 Open Short/Sell
AUD/USD Buy at 0.6395 Exit at 0.6420 Sell at 0.6625 Exit at 0.6580 Open Long/Buy
EUR/CHF Buy at 1.5155 Exit at 1.5200 Sell at 1.5365 Exit at 1.5310 Open Short/Sell
GBP/JPY Buy at 130.30 Exit at 131.20 Sell at 136.45 Exit at 137.50 Open Short/Sell